Artificial Intelligence to be Integrated into Futures Studies

The conference opened with a discussion on future skills in science and technology. How do new technologies help optimize business processes and human resource management? What should the training system look like so organizations can find specialists with the right competencies and effectively respond to the challenges of the time, including technological ones? Participants in the first session discussed changes in the labor market and the impact of trends in the digital economy and R&D on the development of human capital. The session was moderated by Sofya Chernogortseva, Deputy HSE First Vice-Rector.

The opening presentation, dedicated to developing the potential of human resources in corporations by forecasting innovative competencies, was delivered by Professor Andrey Selskiy of the HSE Graduate School of Law and Administration, who recently became head of the newly established Center for Prospective Competencies Research and Talent Development at HSE ISSEK. Given the current shortage of qualified personnel on the labor market, it is critically important for Russian companies to implement approaches to long-term forecasting of their personnel needs. Foresight methodology offers an optimal set of such practices, from creative to evidence-based. Using real-world examples from a mining company, Professor Selskiy demonstrated how corporate foresight research addresses personnel needs and commented on some of its results. In light of industry specifics, solutions that automate a number of production processes based on robotics, artificial intelligence, machine vision, and other technologies may play a crucial role in the period up to 2035-2045. The empirical basis for the research on promising solutions were 150 cases of automation at Russian and foreign mining companies. Based on the results of the foresight project, the company audited its current and projected staffing requirements and made a more accurate assessment of the potential for reducing the need for personnel, which, for example, in the case of heavy truck drivers in quarries, reaches 90%.

Continuing the discussion on the challenges of training highly qualified personnel for industry, Yulia Belova and Natalia Shmatko from the HSE ISSEK Department for Human Capital Research presented a joint presentation on the competencies in demand for robotics engineers. By 2030, in accordance with national goals, Russia should enter the top 25 countries in terms of robot density and increase the number of robots installed at enterprises from 12,800 in 2023 to 94,000. Under these conditions, the shortage of personnel and competencies becomes one of the main challenges. A survey of managers of robotics organizations (conducted in September-October 2024 by HSE ISSEK staff) showed a shortage of qualified personnel with engineering competencies in 73% of the companies surveyed. Along with the general shortage of personnel and their insufficient qualifications, managers note difficulties in finding specialists with critically important competencies. Among the problematic areas are competencies in artificial intelligence and proficiency in special digital tools, which are essential for companies engaging in the rapid development of industrial robotics.

Anastasia Nesterenko, Head of the Learning and Development Department at AIM Management (EuroChem), spoke about approaches to improving employee qualifications and technologies for developing their skills. Digital formats, such as VR simulators for training newcomers in professions and skills (in particular, welding, gamification, micro-modular online learning, and transparent evaluation metrics) make training materials available to all company employees and relevant at all stages of their life cycle.

Competency assessment is not only a tool for identifying existing gaps in personnel skills, but also an asset for growth and strategic planning at the corporate and national levels, emphasized Younes Bennane, President of the Social and Media Studies Institute of Casablanca, Morocco. Companies that rely on accurate assessments of employees' digital skills can not only improve their cybersecurity but also focus on developing advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, thereby strengthening their position in the highly competitive environment of the digital economy. Countries that focus on developing new sectors of the economy and carry out educational reforms aimed at developing in-demand competencies and their comprehensive assessment achieve global leadership positions. The speaker talked about how Morocco, with the support of the government, is implementing the Plan for Accelerating the Transformation of Higher Education, Research and Innovation (PACTE ESRI 2030), aimed at modernizing universities and bringing their activities closer to world standards. Notably, among the tasks set, along with the development of digital skills, is the development of soft skills: critical thinking, teamwork, and sustained motivation to learn, which is extremely important for lifelong learning.

Sofya Chernogortseva emphasized that modern technologies play an important role in optimizing both business processes and work with human resources. They contribute to the automation of routine operations, improvement of internal corporate interactions, and rapid adaptation to external changes. To maintain competitiveness, organizations need to innovate, invest in staff training, and create conditions for continuous professional development of employees.

Artificial Intelligence Technologies are Constantly Evolving and Rapidly Capturing All Spheres of Human Life

“It is important and necessary to study the impact of AI on the future of humanity. However, what methods to use to study it is an equally important question,” emphasized Olesia Maibakh, Head of the Foresight Research Methodology and Organization Unit of the HSE ISSEK Foresight Center, who moderated the "Artificial Intelligence Foresight" session. The field is changing so rapidly that researchers need to constantly develop special tools and methods for studying AI as a field of science, including foresight methodology.

Konstantin Vishnevsky, Director of the Center for Strategic Analysis and Big Data at HSE ISSEK, noted that over the past 10 years the number of publications on AI worldwide has grown by 2.5 times, while in Russia it has only grown by 1.9 times. In this field of science, following the advice of Lewis Carroll's Alice, even to stay in place, you need to run twice as fast, the speaker emphasized. In order to optimize resources and the efforts of various teams involved in AI projects, the Russian government set the task of creating a unified program of research and development in the field of AI by the end of 2024. The HSE team, together with Sberbank, analyzed the most promising areas of AI based on several criteria: the availability of personnel and infrastructure, the potential for scientific breakthroughs, and the solution of socioeconomic problems. As a result, 130 research tasks in the field of AI were identified, which will be handled by leading scientific teams in the country.

Alexey Naumov, Academic Supervisor of the HSE Faculty of Computer Science’s AI and Digital Science Institute, gave an overview of the evolution of AI and focused on some of the issues (including philosophical ones) facing its developers. “The path of AI has been long and thorny: deep neural networks made a revolution. This breakthrough was compared to ‘shooting natives with a cannon’,” the speaker remarked. The current capabilities of AI-based applications are amazing: generative adversarial networks have learned to create faces of non-existent people, AlphaGo defeated the world champion in Go, and ChatGPT, which learns from users themselves, created a sensation. Further, this evolution has no limits. However, one must ask what the key is to the development of AI. Can it be compared to a human brain solving complex problems after having a figurative chocolate bar for a boost? Perhaps we need to better understand how biological networks learn, suggested Alexey Naumov, in order to use their example to train AI. And how can AI models improve? How can one provide AI with high quality information? The Internet is full of "amateur opinions" from which ChatGPT also learns. How does one protect against manipulation by AI when it becomes even smarter? Such questions are key for developers of AI-based applications, the speaker believes, as the discovered solutions can become a point of no return for both further success and failure.

Fatemeh Masdari from the Iran Broadcasting University addressed the moral aspects of using AI. Who is responsible for the use of AI, for example, in military operations? Can machines become responsible for their actions? As a result of the study, the expert concluded that at the moment there are no legal consequences for the inaccuracy of information that is formulated and disseminated by AI. According to the speaker, AI systems exhibit traits of responsible awareness, so there are also grounds for making moral judgments. Any entity that exhibits traits of interactivity, adaptability, and autonomy should be considered a moral agent. Recognizing AI as a moral agent will inevitably entail endowing it with moral responsibility for its actions. Fatemeh expressed confidence that humanity will have to develop moral and ethical standards due to the expansion of the practice of using generative models.

The conference was attended by two members of the Millennium Project, a global distributed network of futures researchers. Its representative from Spain, Ibon Zugasti, who also heads the research firm Prospektiker, devoted his presentation to the global governance of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), which in the future will greatly exceed human capabilities. Such superintelligence will learn to independently search for information around the world, improve and learn from its own experience, and, according to various forecasts, may become a reality in just five to ten years. "Such a limitless machine must certainly be under control," Mr. Zugasti emphasized and explained how the Millennium Project participants are developing AGI governance models to ensure the safety of our future, should AGI become a reality. Currently, researchers have formulated about 40 rules. As conceived by the authors, it is important to extend their effect to everyone, from developers and users (they will be recommended to keep a log of AGI usage – similar to a "black box" on airplanes) to governments and supranational organizations. For example, it will be necessary to control interactions between AGIs of different countries, as well as to prevent the risk of a possible new arms race – now in the field of AI.

The development of AI is inevitable, believes British researcher David Wood, also a participant in the Millennium Project. This is due to growing corporate demand and technological rivalry between different countries. Along with the great opportunities that AI solutions open up, it is important to analyze and prevent possible risks in a timely manner. Using examples from the not-so-distant past, the speaker showed that humanity already has successful experience in preventing risks – based on humanist principles. David Wood recalled the story of Stanislav Petrov, a Soviet officer who did not give the order for a nuclear strike, guessing about the false triggering of the missile attack warning system from the enemy. However, there have also been tragedies that claimed the lives of hundreds of people when aircraft onboard computers incorrectly determined the level of danger and the pilots did not double-check the sensor data. "These cases serve as a reminder of the responsibility we bear for the implementation of AI: in addition to improving models, humanity also needs to develop so that AI becomes a source of opportunities, and does not lead to disasters, moral decline in society, and a sense of powerlessness," the speaker summarized.

Almost 90% of all global data has been created in the last three years, with about 330 million terabytes of information generated daily, noted Konstantin Vishnevsky, Director of the Center for Strategic Analysis and Big Data at HSE ISSEK, opening the discussion on the use of artificial intelligence in business. The colossal increase and complication of information flows makes manual processing impossible, and this is where automated big data analysis systems come to the rescue. These technologies help one obtain operational analytics and reduce the risks of human error. What opportunities do they open up and what risks do they pose?

Irina Loginova and Anna Piekalnits, specialists of the HSE ISSEK Big Data Research Unit, spoke about how the iFORA intelligent big data analysis system developed at ISSEK has been improved over the year and what new scientific and business problems it has been involved in solving. Their colleague, Maria Antasheva, an expert from the HSE ISSEK Data Analysis Unit, demonstrated the system's capabilities for identifying promising areas of cooperation in the field of AI technologies between Russia and India. iFORA works with huge amounts of data and, thanks to the underlying model of semantic analysis and machine learning, can provide accurate answers to user questions in real time in an online dialogue mode, confirming them with links to primary sources. To date, the system's information base contains more than 800 million documents in Russian, English, and Chinese, and its daily replenishment within the framework of the implemented data collection pipeline is approximately 30,000 sources.

Lyubov Matich, Executive Director of Sberbank, spoke about the growing role of AI assistants and their rapid integration into business processes around the world. Using the example of the bank's monitoring of the activities of more than 100 foreign companies that use AI to increase productivity and reduce labor costs, she demonstrated that AI is already being used not only by firms that traditionally use digital technologies (for example, marketplaces), but also by organizations in the field of construction, consulting, school education, and scientific research. AI assistants are beginning to penetrate the field of legal and psychological support. In addition to the already familiar interaction with "end" consumers (B2C), AI assistants are being implemented in the B2E (business to employee) segment to meet the needs of the companies' own employees. Another interesting area for the application of AI assistants are robots, including not only their functioning, but also the creation and training of the robots themselves. In the near future, neuro-supplements will appear on the basis of AI, receiving data on the physical and mental state of people not from the external environment, but directly from the person through sensory devices. Such neuro-advisers will be able, for example, to offer an employee optimal options for performing work, avoiding unnecessary actions. The development of technologies using neural data will require the involvement of a wide range of specialists: psychologists, neurobiologists, lawyers, etc. Due to the increasing scale of AI distribution, the problem of storing and processing the huge amounts of accumulated information will arise, and increasingly reliable solutions for cyber protection will be needed.

Cesar Costa from the Brazilian Center for Strategic Studies and Management in Science, Technology and Innovation spoke about the growing role of video content summarization. Currently, huge amounts of information are posted on various video platforms. YouTube receives more than 3 billion search queries daily. Busy people do not always have time to watch hours-long videos. Therefore, the task arises of summarizing and creating short content based on video recordings. Using linguistic technologies with automatic transcription, one can highlight keywords and make a text summary. For example, when assessing market trends, the most frequently used terms are extracted, which are then entered into the database for further keyword searches. As a result, the user can familiarize themselves with the list of relevant videos with short content and marked timing of the necessary fragments. Summarization technologies are becoming an essential tool for business analytics and competitive intelligence.

Concluding the discussion, Konstantin Vishnevsky emphasized that, despite the risks, fears, and distrust of AI in the modern world, the number of successful cases will steadily grow, leading to the active implementation of AI technologies in various areas of business.

In recent years, a mandatory part of the Foresight Conference program has been a special seminar featuring leading experts from think tanks in BRICS countries, who are involved in developing and supporting the formation of national science and technology policies. During the event, representatives of specialized organizations discuss promising directions of development and formats of cooperation of the BRICS countries in the field of science and technology.

Yuan Like, Professor and Researcher at the Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development, in his presentation emphasized the importance of the principle of openness when conducting expert discussions – one of the basic tools of foresight research – with the involvement of the widest possible range of participants from the scientific and civil communities, industry, government, private sector, small business, and youth. Such large-scale technological forecasting events in the format of an open dynamic dialogue contribute not only to the formation of a culture and the improvement of the quality of foresight, but also to the creation of a network of technological innovators. Foresight studies, which serve as the basis for compiling a list of critical technologies and developing national programs for the medium- and long-term scientific and technological development of the country, have become widespread in China since the 1980s. According to statistics, within the framework of the fifth national technological foresight in 2013-2015, more than 750 expert seminars were held in the field of computer science, biology, new materials, etc., in order to identify key technologies and establish broad links and mechanisms of cooperation between participants. According to the speaker, foresight is not about the ability to predict the future; it is a human trait that enables weighing the pros and cons, evaluating various action scenarios in a potential future, and using them to inform decision-making. In conclusion, the speaker proposed a relevant topic for further discussion at the BRICS level: integrating AI tools, particularly natural language processing solutions, into foresight research and trend analysis. AI can definitely improve the efficiency of using external sources of knowledge, but can AI improve or completely replace traditional methods of open foresight with the participation of a wide range of experts?

The theme of openness and inclusiveness in conducting futures research was continued by Mlungisi Cele, Executive Director of the National Advisory Council on Innovation of the Republic of South Africa. The world is currently undergoing profound transformations and geopolitical crises. How does one build cooperation in science, technology and innovation (STI) during crises or conflicts? New approaches to STI policy are emerging around the world, such as shifting the focus from a narrow focus on productivity and competitiveness towards STI policies that deliver equitable socioeconomic transformations within more sustainable, inclusive, and resilient socio-technical systems. The speaker emphasized the importance of the principle of open science: firstly, it should be open to all sources of knowledge and traditions, including those of indigenous peoples; secondly, it should be available for universal use as a public good. UNESCO defines open science as an inclusive construct that combines various movements and practices aimed at disseminating and making scientific knowledge available in different languages, exchanging information, and expanding cooperation. By adopting a national policy of open science, South Africa promotes equality and the democratization of knowledge. Adherence to this principle has received its scientometric confirmation: in 2022, the share of scientific papers in South Africa written by one author decreased to 10%, and the share of papers written in international co-authorship is steadily growing. As one of the tools to strengthen cooperation, the speaker considers it necessary to promote the strategy of science diplomacy.

Gautam Goswami, Head of Technology Foresight Unit at the Technology Information, Forecasting and Assessment Council of the Department of Science and Technology of India, focused his presentation on the problem of climate change, which has a negative impact on people's lives in his country: over the past two years, the frequency of heat waves has increased, the air temperature has risen to 51°C, almost half (45%) of India's districts suffer from drought, while others are prone to floods, monsoons and landslides are intensifying, and disruptions in agriculture are observed. According to comparative data on greenhouse gas emissions in BRICS+ countries, published by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission in 2024, their largest volume falls on China and India. The speaker presented the results of a national scientific and technological foresight study conducted to identify solutions to combat climate change in all spheres of life. As a result of the project, a number of national initiatives have been adopted, aimed, in particular, at: improving energy efficiency, utilizing solar energy, and stabilizing agriculture, water supply, transport, ecosystems and coastal zones, human health, and the living environment. Gautam Goswami proposed possible joint actions of BRICS+ countries to reduce the negative impact of climate change, including the development of a reliable mechanism for adapting to challenges and increasing investments in fundamental research in this area; the widespread introduction of renewable energy sources and green hydrogen; and responsible monitoring by each participating country to ensure global temperature rise remains within 1.5°C.

Yulia Milshina and Anna Grebenyuk from the HSE ISSEK International Research and Educational Foresight Center believe that the future, in addition to opportunities, also carries serious problems. They talked about “wild card” events that seem unlikely but can happen abruptly and have a significant impact on the development of humanity. The “wild card” database with a detailed description, probability assessment, and year of possible appearance was formed by the Foresight Center based on a comprehensive methodology that combines advanced methods of big data analysis using the iFORA system, as well as expert panels, including a Delphi survey and discussions with the participation of more than 400 leading global and Russian scientists and specialists. The database contains more than two hundred events related to the social, technological, economic, environmental, and political spheres. It is noteworthy that back in 2022 the database was much smaller and contained about 50 such events. The authors noted the growing interest from the scientific community and businesses in building future strategies and technology roadmaps that take into account the increased complexity and uncertainty of the modern world.

Fernando Rizzo, President of the Brazilian Center for Strategic Studies and Management in Science, Technology and Innovation, suggested how researchers from the BRICS+ countries can intensify cooperation. Experts from the Center conducted a bibliometric analysis of the key competencies in global scientific production based on a selection of the 5,000 most cited papers in the Web of Science (WoS) database from 2000 to 2024. Its results showed the key role of two areas – digital technologies and agriculture. During a detailed analysis of publications in these areas, based on a dataset of works authored by researchers from Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (Web of Science data for 2010–2024), textual connections within the articles were identified. These connections highlighted overlapping thematic areas, enabling the identification of potential avenues for building cooperative partnerships. Among these areas were, for example: image processing, computer vision, and big data analysis (China, Russia, India, Brazil, South Africa); energy efficiency (China, India, Russia); climate change and drought prediction (India, Russia, South Africa); robotic crop harvesting (China, India, Brazil); plant diseases, food security, and crop yield forecasting (India, Brazil, South Africa). As the speaker noted, the authors of these scientific works from different countries within the same thematic area often remain unaware of one another’s research. They proposed considering the idea of establishing a joint BRICS Observatory for Science, Technology, and Innovation to address the following problems:

1. identifying key competencies in priority thematic areas and analyzing the current capabilities of BRICS countries in the relevant scientific field;
2. assessing weaknesses in the BRICS research network;
3. developing joint research programs.

Mohamed Ramadan Rezk, Director of the Egyptian Science, Technology and Innovation Observatory, emphasized the significance of Egypt's accession to BRICS+ given the country's geopolitical and economic position and its role in global supply chains and in ensuring the security of the Suez Canal, the main artery of world trade and logistics connecting the Mediterranean and Red Seas. According to the speaker, potential scenarios for cooperation in the field of science, technology, and innovation within the BRICS+ framework could range from limited collaboration on small joint projects, primarily carried out by individual think tanks, academic institutions, and research centers, to strategic partnerships in key technological sectors (such as renewable energy, biotechnology, and artificial intelligence) and full integration into large-scale, high-level, multi-sectoral joint projects (e.g., space exploration, advanced technologies, and more). The speaker emphasized that the implementation of the latter two scenarios would strengthen BRICS+ through mechanisms of technology transfer and job creation, while comprehensive cooperation could position the bloc as a global leader in the technological domain.

Russian cosmonaut and leading specialist of the Expert-Analytical Department of the Yu.A. Gagarin Research and Test Cosmonaut Training Center, Sergey Revin, proposed the creation of a joint BRICS space energy supply system. This system would enable the transmission of solar energy via spacecraft to areas lacking (or with underdeveloped) energy infrastructure, where other energy sources are either environmentally harmful or unfeasible. It would also provide energy on an emergency basis to any location on Earth where power supply disruptions occur due to natural disasters. In addition to energy transmission, the proposed space system would ensure the illumination of Earth’s regions and aquatic areas and provide global internet connectivity. Implementing such a system would require the active involvement of commercial companies and a wide range of specialists. Each project participant would be assigned a distinct, self-contained task, which would then be integrated into the overall project. The speaker emphasized that to consolidate all efforts in implementing initiatives in the field of science, technology, and innovation, it is essential to make the forecasts and outcomes of foresight research valuable and actionable for private companies.

The session chair, Alexander Sokolov, Deputy Director of ISSEK and Director of the HSE ISSEK International Research and Educational Foresight Center suggested in the concluding part of the seminar to focus on strengthening collaborative efforts among BRICS countries. This includes developing foresight research methodologies, exchanging information, experiences, and best practices, preparing reports and publications, and identifying thematic priorities not only in the field of STI, but also across a broader spectrum of socioeconomic development areas, with the formulation of proposals for utilizing STI to achieve the established goals.

Russian and foreign researchers discussed the prospects of science fiction in the context of futures studies and technological foresight.

Jean Paul Pinto from the Laboratory of Imagination and Materialization of the Future (Ecuador) discussed how science fiction can anticipate global challenges such as climate change, socio-political conflicts, and technological advancements, including the emergence of artificial intelligence. He emphasized the natural complementarity between science fiction and foresight in exploring the potential consequences of new technologies and mobilizing public opinion. The speaker noted that major companies like Google, Microsoft, and Apple consult science fiction writers to shape development strategies and create innovative products. He also shared his experience of using science fiction in his work with clients in Ecuador.

Thomas Lombardo, Director of the Center for Future of Consciousness (USA), focused on the features of science fiction as a narrative capable of evoking emotions and stimulating imagination, including among a wide audience – something often lacking in theoretical scientific research. In his opinion, the main advantage of science fiction is the stimulation of a holistic future consciousness, which allows stakeholders to more deeply comprehend the coming changes.

The boundaries between science fiction and reality are gradually fading, with ideas once deemed fantastical becoming real technologies, noted Jose Cordeiro, Head of the Millennium Project Node (Venezuela), as well as a writer, futurist, and engineer, referencing Arthur C. Clarke’s three laws. In his presentation, he focused on the topics of technological singularity, the ethical implications of advancements in artificial intelligence and robotics, and the role of human psychology in driving innovation.

Olesia Maibakh demonstrated how futures researchers can make use of science fiction texts on the example of one of the latest projects of the HSE ISSEK Foresight Center. Using large language models, more than 1,200 concepts of technologies and products were extracted from over 100 science fiction literary works created after 1990 (the date was chosen due to the desire to obtain a selection of technologies and products described in texts about the future that are most applicable to the modern world). The resulting database is intended to be used during foresight sessions and expert interviews to stimulate participants’ creativity in generating ideas for new technologies, market niches, needs, and more. The analysis of the database of future technologies and products has revealed several intriguing patterns. For example, around the turn of the millennium, authors most frequently described “fantastical” technologies – those that are unrealistic, nearly impossible, and constrained by the laws of physics. This period also saw a peak in interest in the portrayal of scientists and the process of scientific research. In contrast, the 2020s are dominated by “realistic” technologies – those expected to be implemented within the next five to ten years. Additionally, over the past three decades, there has been a steady increase in technologies related to consumer goods production, likely influenced by globalization and the spread of consumerism.

The session was accompanied by a lively discussion on best practices for using science fiction in foresight research and the potential of applying technological concepts from older works to predict new technologies. Participants also touched on the topic of sparking young people’s interest in science through science fiction, emphasizing its potential as a bridge between science and society to shape visions of the future, inspire innovation, and promote ideas of harmonious interactions between humans and technology. Session moderator Alexander Sokolov noted that the integration of science fiction into foresight can significantly enrich forecasting processes, enabling one to account for human values and unlock creative potential in shaping the future.

The Conference concluded with a session devoted to evaluating the effectiveness of science, technology, and innovation policy measures – one of the most pressing research problems. The session was chaired by Mikhail Gershman, Director of the HSE ISSEK Center for Science, Technology, Innovation and Information Policy.

The Center’s specialists Marina Evseeva and Yulia Belova presented a joint report in which they examined the relationship between the policy in the field of scientific and production cooperation and the innovative potential of firms based on survey data from 1,047 organizations from high-tech sectors of the economy (conducted as part of the ISSEK project "Monitoring of Innovative Behavior of Enterprises" in 2023). Regression analysis of the data revealed that companies with the status of industrial partners of universities or research organizations within the framework of world-class Research and Education Centers (RECs) were more likely to be innovators, having released innovative products in 2022–2023. Presumably, this is due to the regional specifics of the RECs, which are created taking into account the interests and needs of local innovative businesses. At the same time, recipients of other "cooperative" state support measures were most often companies that occupied a dominant position on the market but did not have a high innovative potential. According to the researchers, maintaining such a trend can lead to the formation of a kind of "technology traps": it will be more difficult to switch to a new trajectory of technological development in industries where large companies have predominant access to new knowledge. To reduce risks, the state needs to expand support for small and medium-sized innovative companies and pay more attention to the novelty and originality of R&D projects carried out jointly with universities and research organizations.

When evaluating scientific and technological policy measures, it is important to take into account "feedback" from the recipients of such measures. This was emphasized by Elena Kameneva, researcher of the HSE ISSEK Laboratory for Economics of Innovation in a report devoted to the analysis of the role of state support in stimulating the growth of extrabudgetary spending on research and development (R&D). The study was conducted jointly with the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs and was based on an express survey of 66 companies, most of which had experience in conducting R&D and applying relevant support measures. Respondents positively assessed the dynamics of their own investments in R&D, emphasizing their noticeable growth (more than 10%) in 2022-2024, but noted a number of constraining factors: the lack of their own funds, economic uncertainty, insufficient volume of funds, and the complexity of obtaining assistance from the state. Despite the high demand for such measures as subsidies for R&D, VAT and income tax benefits, and programs to support cooperation with universities and research organizations, companies faced difficulties in passing competitive procedures, high costs of administering the allocated funds (including excessive reporting) and fines in the case of unsuccessful R&D. To reduce these barriers and create incentives for increasing business investments in R&D, it is necessary to improve existing policy measures by adjusting the level of support based on the complexity of scientific and technological tasks, simplifying application procedures, and raising company awareness about available measures.

When making management decisions regarding the optimization of existing and the development of new scientific and technological policy measures, a comprehensive analysis of their landscape is required, noted Vitaly Dementiev, Head of the HSE ISSEK Department for Research of Legislation in S&T and Innovation. In his report, he presented the results of mapping and evaluating the effectiveness of policy measures in the field of supporting high technologies. The proposed approach took into account not only the ratio of costs and results of the implementation of key state initiatives, but also a number of additional parameters: the quality of planning and management, relevance and significance for recipients of support, as well as the link to achieving the target indicators of strategic and program documents. As a result of the assessment, four groups of measures with varying degrees of effectiveness were identified, as well as the corresponding technology readiness levels (TRLs). Most highly effective measures focused on supporting applied research. In terms of critical technologies, a significant amount of state support in 2016-2023 was accounted for by developments in the field of nuclear energy, fundamental and applied research in the field of biomedicine, and environmental monitoring. The analysis made it possible to understand what tools are used to develop priority technologies and identify possible directions for improving their effectiveness.

Another approach to ex-ante evaluation of science, technology, and innovation policy was proposed by Caetano Penna from Brazil Center for Strategic Studies and Management in Science, Technology, and Innovation. He analyzed policy packages aimed at decarbonizing the economy and enhancing climate resilience in developed countries as well as in Latin American and Caribbean nations. Based on 20 case studies, Penna identified key characteristics of government initiatives that determine their long-term effectiveness. The essential success criteria included: clearly defined goals and indicators for their achievement, support for technologies at all stages of their life cycle through the coordinated efforts of relevant national agencies and funds, and the establishment of platforms for stakeholder interactions. These characteristics were evident in the missions and programs of countries such as Australia, Austria, Norway, and Sweden. For Latin American countries, the recommendations focused on specifying goals, increasing funding, evaluating the complementarity of policy instruments, and improving governance, monitoring, and evaluation mechanisms. These proposals were submitted to the Inter-American Development Bank and several responsible agencies in Latin American countries for further refinement.

Summing up the session, Mikhail Gershman noted that the participants managed to cover various aspects of assessing science, technology and innovation policy measures, reflecting both national and international practices. The presented studies highlighted key barriers to and ways to improve measures to support science and technology, including the need to take into account regional characteristics, increase the accessibility of support measures for companies, simplify administrative procedures, and coordinate stakeholders. The analysis of Russian and international initiatives revealed that successful science and technology policies are characterized by clearly defined goals, effective management, and consideration of feedback from beneficiaries. The speakers’ final recommendations emphasized the importance of a comprehensive and flexible approach to the development and evaluation of measures supporting science and technology.