What is Common in Formula 1 Racing and Climate Intelligence? ISSEK HSE Foresight Center Held a Session on Applied Foresight Methods.

Can a Formula 1 race become a testing ground for digital forecasting, and how can climate intelligence help companies adapt to shocks? The second session of International Symposium “Foresight in a Rapidly Changing World” within XXVI April International Academic Conference named after Evgeny Yasin focused on finding answers to these questions. The discussion, which brought together experts from Russia, Canada, France, and Brazil, was moderated by Yulia Milshina, Deputy Director of the ISSEK Foresight Center (HSE University).

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Aleksey Melovatski (ISSEK HSE University) opened the session “Foresight: Applications for Business” with a presentation on two long-term development scenarios for the Russian oil and gas industry. According to the expert, scenario forecasting method is the best way to explore the future and identify areas of global uncertainty.

The first scenario will see increased sanctions pressure and worsening macroeconomic conditions (decreasing crude oil prices, increased competition in refining segment, protectionism by producing countries and isolationism by consuming countries). As a result of unfavorable external factors, the accumulated strength reserves of domestic oil producers will gradually be depleted, that will impact financial indicators deterioration and curtailment of innovative activity. Under this scenario, companies will only be able to maintain their positions in the global oil market for 3-5 years. After that, their competitiveness will decline significantly.

According to the second scenario, technological indicators (patent activity, R&D intensity, CAPEX) will increase, and impact of negative external factors will decrease. This favorable development will positively impact economic performance (profitability, market share, etc.) of oil and gas companies. The main driver of positive dynamics will be growing availability of affordable and efficient drilling technologies, which can increase oil recovery factors (ORFs).

The speaker noted that the database of indicators collected during the study can be used not only for retrospective assessments but also for foresight. In particular, monitoring data on new technologies allows early detection of countries' or companies' readiness for technological modernization.

Jonathan Calof(Ottawa University, Canada) and Christophe Bisson(SKEMA Business School, France)studied relationship between companies' agility and their sensing of change. To describe organizational agility, the researchers used 12 parameters, such as search for new business opportunities, willingness to undertake high-risk projects, and rapid response. Responsiveness to change allows companies to take proactive action to mitigate threats and better exploit emerging opportunities. The conceptual model developed by Calof and Bisson confirmed the linear relationship between company's foresight competencies and its degree of flexibility and responsiveness.

According to experts, foresight, in particular the competitive intelligence method, although it does not directly determine companies’ flexibility, at the same time develops skills in their teams that increase resilience, strategic long-sightedness, and sensitivity to weak signals. Investing in foresight studies, a company simultaneously strengthens its adaptability and develops "sensitivity" to change, the speakers concluded.

Uliana Kostyukova (Moscow Polytechnic University) presented an unusual case study, exploring the impact of digital activity and media presence of Formula 1 teams on audience engagement. She used econometric models and scenario forecasting for her study. The results confirmed empirical finding that frequent media mentions enhance the impact of social media posts and messaging. Even regular online media activity positively influences audience response to content. According to the study, short behind-the-scenes videos elicit the greatest audience response.
In concluding her report, the author suggested that sports brands could use the econometric model she developed to build optimal communication channels with audiences, expand their global reach, and strengthen loyalty.

Marcelo Paivaand Gabriel Figueiredo(Centre for Strategic Studies and Management in Science, Technology and Innovation, Brazil) presented a report on climate intelligence in the BRICS countries. They conducted a bibliometric analysis of publications on climate change and found that BRICS countries account for 54.5% of global publications on this topic. China is the leader, followed by the US, India, Germany, and the UK. Key areas of expertise include ecology, engineering, meteorology, geology, computer science, energy, and remote sensing.
Experts identified key areas of expertise. In China, these are predictive models for solar and wind energy and AI-based extreme event monitoring. India's publication activity focuses on renewable energy, water resource management, and sustainable agriculture. In Russia, priorities are climate modeling, AI-based weather forecasting, and environmental monitoring, while in Egypt, it is drought prediction and water resource management.
The practical significance of this research lies in the emerging opportunity to synchronize scientific cooperation between BRICS countries in the field of climate technologies. The foresight approach in this case allows for early identification of growth areas and recommendation of areas for potential joint projects, from AI forecasting to water resource management.

Yulia Milshina summing up the session, noted that unifying principle of research described, from scenario modeling in oil and gas industry and Formula 1 racing to climate intelligence, is uncertainty management through construction and analysis of alternative scenarios. Foresight, as a system of long-term forecasting, collective expertise, and development of future scenarios, is an effective tool for such management.

PRESENTATIONS

Aleksey Melovatski (HSE University ISSEK)

Comparison of the Institutional Conditions of the Largest Oil and Gas Business in Russia and Abroad in Response to the Shocks of 2020 and 2022 (PDF, 564 Kb) 

Jonathan Calof (Ottawa University, Canada), Christophe Bisson (SKEMA Business School, France)

Towards an Anticipatory Approach to Foresight and Beyond (PDF, 2.08 Mb) 

Uliana Kostyukova (Moscow Polytech)

Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Digital Activity and Media Presence of Formula 1 Teams on Global Audience Engagement: Scenario Forecasting (PDF, 1.75 Mb) 

Marcelo Paiva, Gabriel Figueiredo (Centre for Strategic Studies and Management in Science, Technology and Innovation, Brazil)

Climate Intelligence in the BRICS Context: A Foresight Approach (PDF, 2.60 Mb)