Alexander Sokolov: "Evidence is a Key Aspect in Working with the Future"

Alexander Sokolov, Deputy Director of the Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge (ISSEK) of the National Research University Higher School of Economics, Head of UNESCO Chair on Future Studies, spoke at Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development (CASTED). His presentation focused on artificial intelligence implementation in futures research and growing role of evidence-based approaches in shaping long-term strategies.

At the beginning of his speech, Professor Alexander Sokolov emphasized that "to be compelling and valuable to society, futures research must be based on a solid data foundation, expert analysis, and clear long-term goals."

In his opinion, human ability to comprehend exponentially growing data has already reached its physical limits. Whereas experts remain key asset for futures research, they require tool that provides them with systematized and up-to-date knowledge.

After all, today they are either drowning in information noise or have too narrow a specialization to track the avalanche-like flow of diverse trends. Artificial intelligence, the Russian scientist is convinced, is poised to become such a tool.

HSE University has been using the iFORA intelligent big data analytics system for several years. It's not just a data processing programme, but a modular platform that addresses a wide range of tasks, from technology lifecycle monitoring and wild cards identification to assessing company reputations and analyzing future workforce needs.

Alexander Sokolov, Deputy Director of HSE Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, Director of Foresight Centre

"iFORA allows us to move beyond simply analyzing the number of publications to analyzing their meaning. Using large language models and a unique multilingual database, we can see structural changes in science occurring right now, not years ago."

As an example, the scientist cited cases from the Foresight Centre's practice in which artificial intelligence enhanced expert knowledge. "The tandem of AI and experts significantly reduces the risk of human error and provides transparent and reproducible methodology, which is sorely lacking in classical forecasting," Alexander Sokolov believes.

Report "Scenarios for Development of Russian Economy in Conditions of Geopolitical Turbulence"

Unlike traditional linear forecasts of the past, the report used scenario analysis covering 14 areas: from macroeconomics and geopolitics to culture, climate, ICT, and agro-industrial complex.

Based on consensus forecasts from nearly 1,000 leading experts (50+ specialists in each field) and analysis of key global think tanks agendas, four possible trajectories for Russia development were identified. The scenario framework for 2025–2036 includes four factors that shape the scenarios:

• Orderliness of international system
• Economic openness
• Technological openness
• Conflict

To process colossal volume of statistical data, researchers turned to AI agents from iFORA. By aggregating data, scientists were able to capture all relevant parameters and build complex mathematical forecasting model for key economic sectors.

Research project "Foresight of Exploratory Research Directions in Artificial Intelligence"

The HSE team faced ambitious task of identifying the most promising research areas in AI, so that academic community could focus its efforts and resources on them. The project consisted of several stages.

In the first stage, Foresight Centre experts, using iFORA, analyzed reports and presentations from speakers at leading international A* level conferences in artificial intelligence (AI) to identify the most promising and breakthrough research topics in AI from 47,703 available publications.

Then in-depth interviews with 50 leading Russian scientists and experts in machine learning (with h-index of 7+), as well as business and government representatives followed. Based on expert validation, longlist of nine of the most significant areas of AI technology development was compiled, encompassing 113 priority research tasks.

The third stage included foresight sessions that divided the research into three levels: basic (creation of new algorithms), applied (for example, adaptation of multimodal models for medicine), and product (chatbots, recommender systems). After classifying the research areas, recommendations were formulated for government agencies and development institutions regarding the most promising areas of machine learning.

Chinese colleagues were particularly interested in AI use for interpretation of "genius forecasts," which consisted of analyzing top speakers presentations at key AI conferences. As Alexander Sokolov explained, iFORA is capable of identifying key R&D areas from hour-long talks by visionaries such as Elon Musk, Sam Altman, Jensen Huang, and Lee Kun, producing a structured analysis of visionary narratives.

Research project "Conducting a comprehensive foresight study of human potential"

The "Human in the Future" programme, which included research project on human potential foresight, was aimed at identifying global trends and challenges associated with human development in the era of technological transformations, and elaborating methods and tools for intelligent analysis of big data.

Analysis of 48+ trends and 200 subtrends allowed Foresight Centre’s experts to create a semantic map of research agenda in human capital development. The key findings of "Human in the Future" programme were unexpected for many, and the final results shaped the basis for management decisions and determining research and development priorities for funding.

HSE ISSEK Foresight Centre

As Professor Alexander Sokolov's speech at CASTED showed, HSE University's leadership in foresight and evidence-based policy, and its experience in creating unique tools such as iFORA, are of interest to the entire world.