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Top 20 Frontiers of Russian Science: 2024
In the framework of world science structure mapping the HSE University Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge (ISSEK) for the first time has identified the most relevant for Russia research and development topics using a system of intelligent analysis of big data iFORA.
The HSE ISSEK has been monitoring the frontiers of world science since 2021. ISSEK has formed a list of 15 science fields and 131 scientific directions based on the OECD classification Fields of Research and Development. Within the framework of analysis of national science and technology (S&T) agenda, topics for each scientific area were identified which cover three related aspects of research into various phenomena, processes and problems or related to advanced methods development, technologies, products and services. A total of about 6 thousand topics on an array of 3 million Russian-language publications included in the RSCI over the past five years have been analyzed using the iFORA system.
Frontiers of science are research topics that belong to the first decile (the first 10% in the ranked distribution series) in terms of significance for the previous year and are characterized by a significance index value for that year that exceeds its average value over the past five years. The index of a topic significance reflects its relevance (frequency of mention) and influence on national science as a whole (general vector centrality), as well as on other topics within a specific scientific direction (intra-cluster vector centrality). Vector centrality which is similar to the concept of centrality used in graph theory, is an average indicator of the vector closeness of a topic to all others included in the analysis measured through the cosine similarity of the corresponding vectors.
HSE ISSEK has developed Intelligent FOResight Analytics System (iFORA) – a unique big data mining system. It is based on the cutting-edge technologies in machine learning and semantic analysis. Its source database includes 850+ million documents (scientific publications, patents, regulatory framework, market analytics, industry media, materials from international organizations, vacancies, etc.) and it is constantly being updated. In 2020 iFORA was featured as an effective decision support tool for businesses and governments in the Nature journal. The OECD classifies iFORA as a successful initiative in the field of science digitalization.
Based on the results of 2024, 332 frontiers of Russian science were identified, the top ones of which are listed in Table 1. As in the global agenda the digital transformation of economy and society and human potential development are the main vectors of most Russian research topics. There are many intersections between these conventional poles thanks to cross-cutting solutions based on artificial intelligence (AI).
AI-based digitalization of industry is fundamentally changing the landscape of modern manufacturing. The combination of digital solutions with Internet of Things technologies allows the creation of interconnected devices networks that collect and process data turning enterprises into a single digital system. Promising research tasks are primarily related to the standardization and integration of various systems for managing large volumes of information received from various media. Another important research area towards the smart factories creation is automation of management processes including through the introduction of AI-based software agents capable of both performing tasks and making decisions with minimal human intervention. In the future consistent integration of digital technologies at different production stages may produce a cumulative effect in which the quality of processes will radically (non-linearly) increase due to the coordinated interaction of various automation systems.
AI usage has gone beyond production tasks. Users over the world are actively testing the AI agents capabilities, many trust them as a personal assistant searching for the necessary content, sorting emails, creating a schedule, training and development plans, connecting them to communication with other people or bots relying on AI recommendations in achieving professional and personal goals. The emergence of hybrid teams is predicted in which AI agents will take an equal place in the labor market in a wide range of professions including those related to intellectual work and creativity. The emergence of hybrid teams involving AI agents equally integrated in the labor market in a wide range of professions including those related to intellectual work and creativity is predicted. The widespread adoption of such technologies faces computational limitations and a number of research challenges related to transparency lack and algorithmic bias, ethical issues and data privacy.
Intelligent risk assessment and forecasting based on AI systems are necessary tools for managing uncertainty in rapidly changing conditions. In particular, the preventive risk management concept bases on generative neural networks and large language models which allow to identify, model and prevent negative events before they occur can be fully implemented in the medium term.
Current research in cybersecurity aims at creating not only integrated platforms for automated threat response, but also real-time incident prevention systems using adaptive and constantly self-improving AI technologies. In addition, much attention is paid to the development of data protection methods using blockchain technologies and post-quantum encryption. Already now the number of cyber incidents is growing rapidly and the range of threats is changing radically; in the future in particular with the advent of an affordable quantum computer it will be necessary to revise the basic concepts and standards on which cybersecurity systems are built.
Frontier topics related to end-to-end methods of prognostic and complex multiparametric analysis, regression analysis, etc. play a key role in the creation of predictive and other models, their adaptation to real data and testing hypotheses. Modern data processing methods and intelligent mathematical models are actively penetrating various research areas - from technical research to social and public sciences. Thus decisions description that now are based on experience, using mathematical models, will allow us to predict changes in social structures and group behavior; and, for example, the study of digitized art objects will make it possible to determine the authenticity of authorship or discover hidden layers of painting.
Significant progress is being made in the field of automatic speech recognition. For example, using large data sets to learn makes it possible to adapt to different accents, dialects, and noise that increases the potential of human-machine interaction, opening up opportunities for the creation of voice control interfaces and personal AI assistants. Developments related to determining of a conversation tone and interlocutor’s probable mood under their further integration with basic emotional intelligence systems will help automate most processes in education, marketing, the gaming industry and many other areas. Robots equipped with such systems can combine the functions of an interlocutor, a psychologist, even a nurse, and be companions, for example, for the elderly. As speech recognition and synthesis technologies become faster and more efficient, capable of analyzing tonality and context in real time, automatic translation systems for audio and video content, as well as simultaneous translation of direct speech will emerge, which will significantly reduce the language barrier when visiting other countries and radically transform such an experience.
Among the top 20 frontiers, several topics are related to medicine. There is a high interest among domestic researchers in studying risk factors for the development of cardiovascular diseases, which remain the key cause of death among Russians. Considering all possible risks for the patient allows doctors to make reasonable decisions about treatment tactics and choose between conservative and aggressive methods of therapy. Progress in genomic technologies plays a significant role in achieving this frontier: genetic research should become a routine procedure in the future to prepare individual recommendations for prevention. By using advanced data analysis methods, it is possible to establish new relationships between individual genes and cardiovascular pathologies progress, and, based on more accurate prognostic models, in particular those based on AI systems, to personalize the risks of developing diseases taking into account various parameters.
In the field of neurotechnology, special attention is paid to issues of impaired microcirculation in the brain, which can cause pathological changes, lead to hypoxia, strokes, progression of neurodegenerative diseases, cognitive impairment and even death of the patient. Russian scientists are developing new methods, for example, based on the principles of photostimulation (including soft light), which help activate the brain lymphatic vessels and accelerate metabolic waste removal.
Development of intelligent systems and specialized software that allow to optimize diagnostic processes and treatment quality forms a significant cluster among medical topics. Using AI, doctors can analyze various medical images (CT, MRI, ECG, ultrasound, etc.) faster and with fewer errors, identify diseases at an early stage, automate routine procedures, and focus on more complex tasks. In the future multimodal complexes combining medical research results into a single diagnostic model capable to construct digital twins of specific patient’s organs and systems based on images obtained will be created. Information security in this context becomes critically important, as the storage and processing of medical data requires strict adherence to confidentiality standards.
The efforts of a number of domestic researchers are focused on the development of personalized cochlear implants. These devices “restore” hearing to patients bypassing damaged ear structures and directly stimulating the auditory nerve. 3D modeling technologies will help to precisely position electrodes inside the ear, and with the help of neural feedback systems, analyze the brain's reaction to sound and correct signals in real time.
Research in the field of human habitat quality form another group of frontiers. The population health level largely depends on the environmental situation: environmental pollution leads to an increase in the incidence of respiratory, cardiovascular, oncological and other pathologies. To minimize environmental risks, developments are underway to create effective systems for the environment state monitoring and a wide range of “green” technologies, including those reducing anthropogenic impact on the planet’s climate. Thus, developments in the field of synthetic biology can be used to create engineered microorganisms to clean up harmful industrial emissions from water and soil. Researchers are seriously concerned about the reduction in snow cover leading to increase the absorption of solar radiation by the earth's surface that further accelerates the melting of the remaining snow, as temperature rises.
Under new technologies influence, many social processes and institutions are being radically transformed: with social networks widespread the concept of privacy is changing. Research into various aspects of a person’s personal and social life, as well as factors that are significant for their harmonious development and psycho-emotional well-being in different periods, are the most notable among the frontiers of Russian science related to the development of human potential. Research of people personal and social life various aspects, as well as factors that are significant for their harmonious development and psycho-emotional well-being in different periods, are the most notable among the frontiers of Russian science related to the development of human potential. Thus, the study of schoolchildren deviant behavior, especially younger ones, which can be caused, for example, by moving to a new group or difficulties with adaptation to school life, is becoming actual. As well as it is discussed the ineffectiveness of physical punishment as an education method, which aggravate children psychological problems and provoke aggressive behavior development.
The frontiers analysis results indicate digitalization spreading in the theatre environment. Recently the festival movement became a catalyst for its development, when creative groups present the best examples of theatrical productions and also actively introduce all kinds of innovation. Many of them rely heavily on digital solutions: for example, in immersive performances, stage directors can use holograms and virtual and augmented reality technologies to create greater immersion in the action on stage; and computer graphics and robotic systems, including those controlled by AI, to create dynamic sets.
Reviews of the Russian science frontiers can be useful for research organizations, universities, government bodies, development institutions and innovative companies as an information basis for forming research programmes and development priorities identification, innovative projects evaluation, as well as in education and training of personnel capable to work at the forefront of science.
Sources: calculations based on the big data mining system iFORA (copyright holder — HSE ISSEK); the project results in accordance with the approved list of topics for scientific and methodological support work, provided for by the state assignment of the National Research University Higher School of Economics for 2025.
Article was prepared by Danil Yatskin and Anna Grebenyuk
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